Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 4.898600 5.747784 6.686261 7.798373 9.078231 10.502876 12.206696
2025-08-24 3.512091 4.631288 6.002405 7.796540 10.072097 12.850920 16.489040
2025-08-31 2.648383 3.856682 5.471018 7.764274 10.912811 15.054516 20.879834
2025-09-07 2.185426 3.462918 5.299189 8.092432 12.185548 17.904738 26.425141
2025-09-14 1.785378 3.052948 4.998203 8.141987 13.019065 20.199350 31.437964
2025-09-21 1.483286 2.719285 4.732171 8.167214 13.773408 22.416330 36.541286
2025-09-28 1.248652 2.442298 4.495857 8.179369 14.474232 24.589714 41.771740
2025-10-05 1.173114 2.425084 4.681706 8.902988 16.399750 28.868317 50.732308
2025-10-12 1.046190 2.285581 4.625307 9.186987 17.599133 32.066304 58.228351
2025-10-19 0.939350 2.162978 4.576319 9.468128 18.811723 35.387476 66.226894
2025-10-26 0.822380 1.995698 4.412593 9.503131 19.566870 37.968215 73.160541
2025-11-02 0.694899 1.779493 4.114721 9.227836 19.692108 39.412794 78.176229
2025-11-09 0.571876 1.550811 3.759696 8.797642 19.487672 40.276183 82.312798
2025-11-16 0.491258 1.406201 3.563483 8.674393 19.888236 42.334379 88.916026
2025-11-23 0.425962 1.285376 3.400051 8.597070 20.371339 44.596977 96.124762
2025-11-30 0.394320 1.246291 3.422161 8.942318 21.799316 48.885057 107.721802
2025-12-07 0.350864 1.164455 3.325062 8.991360 22.572891 51.891796 116.974235
2025-12-14 0.312044 1.086849 3.224989 9.017152 23.293109 54.847574 126.371058
2025-12-21 0.277705 1.014503 3.125928 9.029821 23.981107 57.792191 135.989967
2025-12-28 0.276678 1.047450 3.319106 9.821805 26.622006 65.257274 155.939884
2026-01-04 0.257708 1.017177 3.329871 10.132505 28.117810 70.284691 170.945107
2026-01-11 0.240264 0.988026 3.339058 10.440063 29.639062 75.499114 186.775103
2026-01-18 0.216622 0.931064 3.255710 10.478343 30.476131 79.197189 199.467388